Singular statistical models arise whenever different parameter values induce the same distribution, leading to non-identifiability and a breakdown of classical asymptotic theory. While existing approaches analyze these phenomena in parameter space, the resulting descriptions depend heavily on parameterization and obscure the intrinsic statistical structure of the model. In this paper, we introduce an invariant framework based on \emph{observable charts}: collections of functionals of the data distribution that distinguish probability measures. These charts define local coordinate systems directly on the model space, independent of parameterization. We formalize \emph{observable completeness} as the ability of such charts to detect identifiable directions, and introduce \emph{observable order} to quantify higher-order distinguishability along analytic perturbations. Our main result establishes that, under mild regularity conditions, observable order provides a lower bound on the rate at which Kullback-Leibler divergence vanishes along analytic paths. This connects intrinsic geometric structure in model space to statistical distinguishability and recovers classical behavior in regular models while extending naturally to singular settings. We illustrate the framework in reduced-rank regression and Gaussian mixture models, where observable coordinates reveal both identifiable structure and singular degeneracies. These results suggest that observable charts provide a unified and parameterization-invariant language for studying singular models and offer a pathway toward intrinsic formulations of invariants such as learning coefficients.

In multi-step learning, where a final learning task is accomplished via a sequence of intermediate learning tasks, the intuition is that successive steps or levels transform the initial data into representations more and more ``suited to the final learning task. A related principle arises in transfer-learning where Baxter (2000) proposed a theoretical framework to study how learning multiple tasks transforms the inductive bias of a learner. The most widespread multi-step learning approach is semi-supervised learning with two steps: unsupervised, then supervised. Several authors (Castelli-Cover, 1996; Balcan-Blum, 2005; Niyogi, 2008; Ben-David et al, 2008; Urner et al, 2011) have analyzed SSL, with Balcan-Blum (2005) proposing a version of the PAC learning framework augmented by a ``compatibility function to link concept class and unlabeled data distribution. We propose to analyze SSL and other multi-step learning approaches, much in the spirit of Baxter's framework, by defining a learning problem generatively as a joint statistical model on $X \times Y$.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

It then serves as probabilistic prior to regularize the inverse problem(1).

Unlike traditional statistical models depending on hand-specified priors, neural processes (NPs) have recently emerged as a class of powerful neural statistical models that combine the strengths of neural networks and stochastic processes. NPs can define a flexible class of stochastic processes well suited for highly non-trivial functions by encoding contextual knowledge into the function space. However, noisy context points introduce challenges to the algorithmic stability that small changes in training data may significantly change the models and yield lower generalization performance. In this paper, we provide theoretical guidelines for deriving stable solutions with high generalization by introducing the notion of algorithmic stability into NPs, which can be flexible to work with various NPs and achieves less biased approximation with theoretical guarantees. To illustrate the superiority of the proposed model, we perform experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, and the results demonstrate that our approach not only helps to achieve more accurate performance but also improves model robustness.

Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers fast, scalable approximations to posterior densities by training neural surrogates on data simulated from the statistical model. However, ABI methods are highly sensitive to model misspecification: when observed data fall outside the training distribution (generative scope of the statistical models), neural surrogates can behave unpredictably. This makes it a challenge in a model comparison setting, where multiple statistical models are considered, of which at least some are misspecified. Recent work on self-consistency (SC) provides a promising remedy to this issue, accessible even for empirical data (without ground-truth labels). In this work, we investigate how SC can improve amortized model comparison conceptualized in four different ways. Across two synthetic and two real-world case studies, we find that approaches for model comparison that estimate marginal likelihoods through approximate parameter posteriors consistently outperform methods that directly approximate model evidence or posterior model probabilities. SC training improves robustness when the likelihood is available, even under severe model misspecification. The benefits of SC for methods without access of analytic likelihoods are more limited and inconsistent. Our results suggest practical guidance for reliable amortized Bayesian model comparison: prefer parameter posterior-based methods and augment them with SC training on empirical datasets to mitigate extrapolation bias under model misspecification.